November 2nd Gubernatorial Election Preliminary Prediction
Patrick 47%
Healey 45%
Mihos 7%
Other 1%
It will be a close race. The large turnout of Patrick’s Liberal base and Mihos siphoning a few critical independent votes away from Healey will lead to Patrick winning the corner office.
Apparently, you haven't been listening to radio commercials. Christy Mihos is capable of playing all 9 baseball positions at once, the man is unstoppable.
Reply to this
You’re forgetting 2 important things
1) Many mainstream Democrats will not vote for Patrick, some will vote for Healey, others who won’t vote Republican will vote for Mihos. So Mihos will peal away votes from both sides. Unless he gets over 10% of the vote, he’s a non-factor
2) Most importantly, Neither Sal Dimasi or Bob Travaglini wants a Democrat in the corner office. So long as the House and Senate have veto proof Democrat majorities.
The House Speaker and Senate President are the two most powerful men in the State.
They’ve stuck a knife in the back of every Democrat gubernatorial candidate since Michael Stanley Dukakis.
As a Republican, I have to admit the best thing that could happen for the State GOP is for Patrick to win. It might motivate them to party to actually build a farm team. No one in the state GOP wants to actually run for anything that is not a glamour gig.
As taxpayer, the worst thing that could happen is a Patrick win. All we need is another Socialist at the helm of an already unbridled tax and spend legislature.
Reply to this
Regarding Sal Dimasi and Bob Travaglini, I think they can torpedo local democrats such as Shannon O’Brien, or even Tom Reilly if he won, but stabbing Deval in the back will be a harder proposition. Deval has the considerable grass roots support in state, but out he also has the out of state Democrats backing him. The democratic national party is nearly devoid for young potential stars with the exception of Barrack Obama, Mark Warner, and Michigan governor Jennifer Granholm. (Granholm cant run for president though because she was born in Canada and came to the states when she was 2) The national Democrats need another potential star and Patrick is it. Travaglini can do all he wants to hurt Patrick chance, but Patrick will have the armor of Bill Clinton, Barrack Obama, and Bill Richardson fortifying his position and his campaign funds.
The other 400 pound gorilla in the room is President Bush. While theoretically, our gubernatorial race has nothing to do with national politics, there is a liberal fervor in the state that has had it up to here with the Bush administration. I would characterize about 20-25 percent of the Massachusetts population as part of this liberal fervor with that is Patrick supporters/Bush haters. This voting block will turn out in a higher percentage then any other voting block in the commonwealth.
In an ironic way, in this election I see Patrick becoming the liberal’s Romney; someone with national cache and charisma. Healey on the other hand has more the air of a local politician that Shannon O’Brien was. In addition, Kerry Healey is a woman. I don’t think people should support candidates based on race or gender, but I think gender plays a lot bigger factor unconsciously in people’s minds then even race does in 2006 Massachusetts. It will be a difficult task for her courting the male particularly union vote that I think has gone in Romney/Weld direction in the voting booth in prior elections. Finally, though Mihos the conservative democrat votes that Mihos might siphon off are were Romney votes in the last election.
Reply to this