Democrats: Obama wins by about 4 percentage points. I expect a stronger then usually turn out for this caucus which is always good for the challenger and not the incumbent. Even though there is not an actual incumbent in this election, Hillary Clinton has been running her campaign like she is one. In addition, I expect more Independents to Caucus on the Democrat side and polls show they favor Obama over Clinton by a wide margin. Even though Edwards is neck and neck with Obama and Clinton in the polls, I think he will fade on the actual Caucus day because people realize he is not a strong enough candidate for the long haul.
Republicans:  Even though Huckabee is leading in the latest polls, I expect Romney to win by a slim margin. Caucuses are all about how strong you are when it comes to ground organization and Romney has been building a well funded ground army for 8 months now; Romney will make sure his voters show up. In addition, Huckabee has had a couple screw ups the past few days like his hypocritical press conference when he said he would not put his anti-Romney ad on T.V. then proceeded to show it to reporters. In the end, I think Romney wants it more and he needs this Iowa win. He will have his 5 sons drive around in pick up trucks and kidnap Huckabee voters before he let Huckabee win. I forsee McCain finishing third and Ron Paul right behind him at a solid 4th. Those Ron Paul supporters are the most motivated of any candidate in either party.