Here is my rational:
•The huge youth turnout will not come; I foresee only a slight increase in young voters, but those who do will overwhelmingly go for Obama. I have had to explain in detail to about a 100 of my college aged friends the process of either getting an absentee ballot or how to figure out where their polling place is. Because the voting locations are not inside college dinning halls I suspect that like usually most will sit this one out.
•There will be a huge increase in African American voter turn out.
•Of the small number of people who say they are undecided, I suspect they will break for McCain 60/40.
•McCain will do about as well as Bush in 04 with White Voters.
•Obama will do much better than Kerry with Hispanic voters.
Electoral College Prediction: Obama 286 McCain 252 (Obama keeps Kerry’s states and gets Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado and Virginia)