Economic Predictions
Nouriel Roubini who I admit knows far more about these matters than me recently predicted a 36 month depression, 10 percent unemployment, 5000 Dow Jones, and a 500 S&P. http://www.cnbc.com/id/29598949
Not that I have any economic training or anything, but I am going to give my own predictions. The next few months as unemployment rises are going to suck. The Dow Jones will drop below 6000. In the early summer is when I foresee things starting to change. Starting last fall and continuing till now, an odd thing happened in American Culture. Buying cheap stuff and generally saving money became a fashionable trend. This has been seen on a national scale and I even hear it when talk about buying groceries or new clothes. Not spending a lot of money has become a collective pastime. Some speculate that there is some sort of borderline permanent paradigm shift going on here. I think it is a trend and like all trends it will not last for long. The Catalyst for the change will be a summer of relatively low gas prices that allows people to spend a little more. While I have problems with some aspects of the Stimulus package, some of its positive effects such as the tax cuts to Americans most likely to spend it and the infrastructure projects beginning will start to help. Thus, there is going to be an upturn in spending which should lead to some more job creation.
The biggest issue that has to be dealt with though is the housing and banks crisis. I fully admit that Tim Geithner and the Obama Administration has not done a great job here. That being said, I predict that they will come up with a decent enough plan to buy up toxic debt and get banks lending again. Once that happens, people will start to buy some of the glut of cheap houses on the market. In addition, instead of the massive stock sell off we have seen the past few months, the lower prices will cause many people myself included to start buying into the stock market in hopes that they can find stocks at their nadir. In short, it will not be good times noodle salad, but I am going with the second half of this year being much better then the first. The Dow ends the year above 7000 and we see the first net job growth in the 4th quarter.
Not that I have any economic training or anything, but I am going to give my own predictions. The next few months as unemployment rises are going to suck. The Dow Jones will drop below 6000. In the early summer is when I foresee things starting to change. Starting last fall and continuing till now, an odd thing happened in American Culture. Buying cheap stuff and generally saving money became a fashionable trend. This has been seen on a national scale and I even hear it when talk about buying groceries or new clothes. Not spending a lot of money has become a collective pastime. Some speculate that there is some sort of borderline permanent paradigm shift going on here. I think it is a trend and like all trends it will not last for long. The Catalyst for the change will be a summer of relatively low gas prices that allows people to spend a little more. While I have problems with some aspects of the Stimulus package, some of its positive effects such as the tax cuts to Americans most likely to spend it and the infrastructure projects beginning will start to help. Thus, there is going to be an upturn in spending which should lead to some more job creation.
The biggest issue that has to be dealt with though is the housing and banks crisis. I fully admit that Tim Geithner and the Obama Administration has not done a great job here. That being said, I predict that they will come up with a decent enough plan to buy up toxic debt and get banks lending again. Once that happens, people will start to buy some of the glut of cheap houses on the market. In addition, instead of the massive stock sell off we have seen the past few months, the lower prices will cause many people myself included to start buying into the stock market in hopes that they can find stocks at their nadir. In short, it will not be good times noodle salad, but I am going with the second half of this year being much better then the first. The Dow ends the year above 7000 and we see the first net job growth in the 4th quarter.
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