1.  I want you to step into a time machine for a second and travel to a time before the Sox reversed the Curse, before 9/11, before anyone had heard of Obama, when people still actually bought things called CDs,  to the year 2000 and remember the word “Lockbox.” Remember Social Security reform? It was the biggest issue of that election. Both Bush and Gore had plans to reform Social Security and Gore’s involved a metaphorical lockbox which he kept saying every 3 seconds in the debate and ended up as easy SNL fodder. Bush’s plan involved allowing for private Social Security accounts. As we all know, Bush ended up winning (sort of) in 2000 and again in 2004. Since Bush won twice, it would be safe to assume that one of his signature legislation goals Social Security reform passed right? Nope. It went down in flames.

That brings us to Health Care Reform which was one of Obama’s signature proposals. Obama talked about health care reform over and over again in debates and speeches and he won the election handedly. Not only that, but the Democrats made huge inroads in the House and Senate. One might then assume that the majority of Americans where in support of the Health Care proposals that Obama and Democrats had as a major issue in their successful campaigns but poll after poll shows relatively tepid support for Health Care reform. This entire situation is very similar to Bush’s Social Security reform. Now let’s for a second throw out the merits and problems that Bush’s SS reform and Obama’s Health Care reform have. Both attempts of reform came from different sides of the political spectrum, but what they have in common is that they would actually produce real change in people’s lives.

My theory is that the typical Swing Voter likes window dressing change in politics but does not want any actual change. Swing Voters like the cosmetic changes of going from Bush to Clinton to Bush to Obama, but as soon as any of those people actually tries to enact a major change that they campaigned on, the typical swing voter freaks the fuck out and then sides with the opposition. In the case of Bush and SS reform that was siding with the Democrats and in the case of Obama and Health Care reform it is siding with the Republicans. They want the status quo not so much for any particular ideological reason but for the fact is what they have gotten used to and are comfortable with. It would be like trying to break them out of their routine and change what kind of coffee they drink each morning. They have their ways and they are sticking to them and they want their politicians to stick with what they know; Even if what they know is a broken health care systems that costs people too much money and leaves millions without insurances or a Social Security system that is heading towards insolvency. Those swing voters are combining with an energized republican base to help Scott Brown do so well in the current polls. Now on to some less longwinded and pithier points than the first one.

2. Curt Schilling must be kicking himself right now. I think he wussed out of running because he did not think he could win as a Republican; he could have easily beat Brown in the primary before Brown gained his current momentum because Schilling had better name recognition at the time and he is generally good at dealing with the media and Brown is currently showing that a Republican would have been viable.

3. Martha Coakley has run a terrible campaign. The scary part is I don’t think any of the democrats she beat in the primary would have done any better. I attended campaign events of all of them and none of them where particularly good at basic political skills like giving a stump speech, interacting with voters, or debating.

4. If you do not think that the candidate matter just as much as issues due, consider the hypothetical of Ted Kennedy being alive and for some reason being forced to run in a special election right now against Scott Brown. Brown might do relatively decent, but just like Romney is 94, Kennedy would have beat him handedly. It would not just be because he was the incumbent and his name was Kennedy, it would have been that Kennedy much like his brothers was 100 times more political skills that Coakley has demonstrated on the Campaign trail or that any of her challengers in the primary demonstrated.

5. Gender and Looks still matter. Martha Coakley is a women who has wrinkles. Scott Brown looks like what many women wish their husbands looked like and what many men think they look like. (a la when Homer is recounting events to Marge and he is taller with bigger biceps) I am not suggesting that this election will be won or lost on appearances, but you can’t tell me that looks and gender have not helped Brown some.

6. I think independent candidate Joe Kennedy will get more votes than people expect using the same exact strategy that Eddie Murphy used in the movie The Distinguished Gentleman. Something like 4%

7. The poll on Friday that showed Brown in the lead, in a way helped Coakley. If all the polls till the end showed Coakley in the lead there would be less urgency among Coakley supporters to make sure they turned out.

8.  Whoever wins on Tuesday, is going to be extremely vulnerable is 2012. If Brown wins and generally votes along with Republicans he will no longer just be the new guy, but have a record that would most likely not jive with what is still an overall very liberal state. If Coakley wins, I can easily see her having problems even in the primary in 2012 unless she seriously improves her political skills.

9. The irony about the national media and everyone focusing on this race in MA in regards to Health Care reform, is that Massachusetts already has passed Health Care reform. It was passed by an overwhelmingly Democratic State House and signed into law by a Republican governor. Right now Massachusetts is the state with the highest percentage of people that have health insurances and most studies rank Massachusetts as one of the healthiest states in the union with the most recent study having us ranked third.  http://www.forbes.com/2009/11/16/unhealthy-healthy-states-lifestyle-health-states-top_chart.html  The East coast, egotistical, elitist, Masshole in me has caused me to be slightly detached from the national health care battle because we already have reform.

10. All that being said, I am voting Coakley on Tuesday with the hopes that a better liberal candidate emerges in 2012. This is a slight cop out, but my prediction for Tuesday is that the election will be so close that there will be a recount and possible court challenges with money and volunteers flowing in from across the nation to help each side in the court room ala 2000 in Florida.